California Statewide Freight Forecasting Model (CSFFM)
The model is being developed to operate as a comprehensive freight analysis and modeling tool that identifies freight movements by truck, rail, and air.
A direct demand input-output model, an inventory-based firm microsimulation of vehicle flows, and use of truck GPS activity pattern data in sub-TAZ truck tour disaggregations and time of day O-D modeling.
The California Statewide Freight Forecasting Model (CSFFM) is a policy-sensitive tool that is intended to forecast commercial vehicle and commodity flows within California. The model will address socioeconomic conditions, freight-related land use policies; environmental policy; and multimodal infrastructure investments. The model will allow for a better understanding of freight movement related policies, regulatory decisions, project decisions, and the impacts of these decisions. The core model is based on a variation of the traditional four steps: regression, logit share model, mode-route choice, and peak vehicle flow distribution. The steps for the enhanced model are listed below:
- Direct Demand Input Output Model
- Transshipment Network Model
- Inventory-Based Firm Microsimulation
- Truck Tour Disaggregation
- Stochastic Assignment
The flow modeling is based on 96 TAZs in California; 7 TAZs in neighboring states; :46 TAZs in rest of United States, and 8 international TAZs and 51 air, water and rail “transshipment logistic nodes”: for a total of 208 origin/destination trip ends.
Truck, Rail, Air.
14 commodity groupings based on aggregation of 2-digit SCTG commodity classes.
The model is meant for use by:
- Planners and engineers in the Caltrans districts
- Used by other state agency staff (i.e., California Air Resource and the California Energy Commission)
- Used by planners in the MPOs and the Regional Transportation Planning Agencies
And to be a policy-sensitive model to forecast commodity flows and commercial vehicle flows within California addressing:
- Socioeconomic conditions
- Land use policies related to freight
- Environmental policies
- Multimodal infrastructure investments
Citilabs CUBE
Public data sources through freight data repository, CALFRED:
- Caltrans (AADTT; Motor Vehicle Stock Travel and Fuel Forecast)
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics (Border Crossings Data; County Business Patterns; Transborder Surface Freight Data; Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey)
- Department of Finance
- California Air Resources Board (Estimated Annual Average Emissions)
- FHWA (FAF2)
- Pacific Maritime Association (Hours, Wages, and Shifts Report and Tonnage Report)
- EPA (National Emission Inventory)
- STB (Rail Carload Waybill Sample)
- RAND California (Major Airport Operating Statistics)
- Association of American Railroads (Rail Performance Measures Weekly Performance Report)
- USCG (Marine Casualty and Pollution Investigation)
- US Customs Vessels Entrances and Clearances
- Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center
- Waterborne Transportation Lines of the United States Vessel Characteristics
- Inputs: socioeconomic data, exports/imports (commodity flows), commodity to vehicle distribution, transportation networks, transshipment data,
- Outputs: spatial commodity flows, spatial commodity productions and consumptions, vehicle flows by mode (truck, rail, air).
Anticipated completion is February 2014