Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?

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suqamywij
Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?

We have several projects starting at work that were to include field data collection of traffic volumes and patterns.  Our discussions led to the POV that the COVID-19 is definitely a disrupter of current traffic and no data collection in the next 3 to 4 months will be valid for mode development/calibration/validation.  So that got me to thinking on whether the Pandemic will be a long term disrupter of past travel behavior driving more permanent changes in teleworking,  willingness to take public transit, willingness to take shared use TNCs, etc.   I think it will be, but the question is how significant will the changes be?  Will we need to initiate new data collection and model validation efforts to modify our existing models to account for new preferences and tradeoffs between modes and their trip characteristics?  How do we determine when this is required?
Any thoughts on this will be appreciated.
In general, how should we account for future and yet unforseen shocks to the system and how people respond.  Can we?

Jim Bunch jabunch@umich.edu

Amardan

Hi Jim,

As an approach, we can consider three different scenarios of ( optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral) to predict future years' travel behavior.

For data collection, I would say this is a unique time to collect data to examine and validate our models for travel behavior during pessimistic scenarios.Also, to see how people will react after the problem dissolved.

I hope everybody makes it through safely with no or minimum casualties. But the lessons we can take for travel forecasts are so precious.

Atabak Mardan

Transportation System Modeler

linkedin.com/amardan

franktmip

Jim: Part of your question seems to be can unknown unknowns be knowable.  The answer, as in so much of what travel forecasters do, is “No.”    That, however, does not mean we don’t do we forecasts; we just do the best we can with what is available and try not to design inflexible systems or programs that are unable to respond to changes that occur over time.   My guess is that after a severe period of disruption things will eventually return to a pre-COVID normal as people try to get back to what they knew and experienced pre-COVID.

 As for whether new surveys, etc. are required, the answer is of course.  They would be needed to take account of other changes eve if COVID had not occurred.

 

 BTW – of course you cannot do surveys at this time.  A quick look at Google maps traffic this morning showed almost all green – unheard of on Monday morning in the DC area.   I wonder if it even makes sense to conduct the Census but that may be unavoidable.   I would be hesitant to use and 2020 ACS data.

 

 Frank Spielberg

sasbhushan

This is an interesting question. I think we can look into similar scenarios in the history. We may gain some knowledge.Some senior members of the community may be interviewed to know how the patterns changed due to an earlier similar pandemic.However, it is also possible that travel demand may dip now but may increase fast to regain its natural growth curve.
Another thought... Think of a bottom limit for the travel demand...(similar to upper limit that is usually affected by capacity). Now COVID has brought the demand down; may be even when COVID was not there after a few years (very close by) another impact, may be technological or something else, could have brought the demand down. Now that the demand is already down, that other future impact is not gonna happen because there is not much to go down (due to lower limit).
I hope I am not too bad... 
Sasanka Bhushan

On Monday, March 16, 2020, 04:40:26 PM GMT+5:30, suqamywij wrote:

We have several projects starting at work that were to include field data collection of traffic volumes and patterns.  Our discussions led to the POV that the COVID-19 is definitely a disrupter of current traffic and no data collection in the next 3 to 4 months will be valid for mode development/calibration/validation.  So that got me to thinking on whether the Pandemic will be a long term disrupter of past travel behavior driving more permanent changes in teleworking,  willingness to take public transit, willingness to take shared use TNCs, etc.   I think it will be, but the question is how significant will the changes be?  Will we need to initiate new data collection and model validation efforts to modify our existing models to account for new preferences and tradeoffs between modes and their trip characteristics?  How do we determine when this is required?
Any thoughts on this will be appreciated.
In general, how should we account for future and yet unforseen shocks to the system and how people respond.  Can we?

Jim Bunch jabunch@umich.edu
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lemypijoj

We really need to consult an economist as to when the economy will get back
to normal, or whether it will hit a new normal. Part of this also depends
on the government; will there be a large stimulus as with Obama 10-11 years
ago or will things be left to evolve. Will people begin to get more
accustomed to teleworking and will the number of teleworkers significantly
rise. The best 'guess' we have of future travel patterns is
surveys conducted just before the virus hit. However, we don't know how
long, if ever, it will take to get back to that point.

On Mon, Mar 16, 2020 at 3:12 PM franktmip wrote:

> Jim: Part of your question seems to be can unknown unknowns be knowable.
> The answer, as in so much of what travel forecasters do, is “No.” That,
> however, does not mean we don’t do we forecasts; we just do the best we can
> with what is available and try not to design inflexible systems or programs
> that are unable to respond to changes that occur over time. My guess is
> that after a severe period of disruption things will eventually return to a
> pre-COVID normal as people try to get back to what they knew and
> experienced pre-COVID.
>
> As for whether new surveys, etc. are required, the answer is of course.
> They would be needed to take account of other changes eve if COVID had not
> occurred.
>
>
>
> BTW – of course you cannot do surveys at this time. A quick look at
> Google maps traffic this morning showed almost all green – unheard of on
> Monday morning in the DC area. I wonder if it even makes sense to conduct
> the Census but that may be unavoidable. I would be hesitant to use and
> 2020 ACS data.
>
>
>
> Frank Spielberg
> --
> Full post:
> https://tmip.org/content/covid-19-temporary-or-permanent-disrupter
> Manage my subscriptions: https://tmip.org/mailinglist
> Stop emails for this post: https://tmip.org/mailinglist/unsubscribe/13384
>

--
Frederick W. Ducca, Ph.D.
Director, Transportation Policy Research Group
National center for Smart Growth
University of Maryland
Preinkert Field House,
College Park, Maryland 20742
301-405-1945
FAX 301-314-5639

Pilo Willumsen

Uncertainty strikes again. I was working on traffic projections for a toll road with the usual three scenarios Base, Upside, Downside and then COVID-19 struck. “Back to the drawing board” and develop another three scenarios, each has a GDP impact and a superimposed Government Intervention impact (work from home, avoid crowds). Scenario A: this will be sorted out in six to ten weeks, there will be an impact on flows as observed and this will last for the x number of weeks with some allowance for transitional periods; the GDP impact will be small but will affect the recovery as it will not be full this year. B: this is a global pandemic and affects all countries and supply chains. It will last longer and will produce a more significant GDP reduction but not a recession. C: this is a pandemic and a recession packed into one and it will take more than one year to get back to “normal”. The traffic line predicted a month ago (or the LRT that relied on 15,000 passengers per day) will never recover. Indeed, some of the activities that moved to the internet (meetings, conferences) will be sticky and will not return to physical presence. Some long and vulnerable supply chains will be shortened thus reducing other travel as well.

One can combine GDP impact and government intervention in other ways but the interesting fact is that 6 days after I expected scenario B to be the most likely one I had to change my mind to bet on C.

And this is not deep uncertainty. It is just short-term uncertainty associated with a known disrupter that may, and in my view will, have long term influence in our behaviour and plans. We need to change the way we recommend decisions as we cannot rely on single figure Cost Benefit Analysis for one or ten scenarios.

Luis

……………………………………………

Luis Willumsen

Director

Willumsen Advisory Services

Nommon-Kineo Mobility Analytics

London & Madrid

T: +44 7979 53 88 45

www.Kineo-analytics.com

…………………………………………..

From: on behalf of Amardan
Date: Monday, 16 March 2020 at 19:12
To: TMIP
Subject: Re: [TMIP] Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?

Hi Jim ,

it definitely has an effect . We in our forecasts always consider 3 different scenarios of ( optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral) to predict future years travel behavior . This is bow we handle scenarios like this.

For data collection, I would say this is an unique time to collect data to examine and validate our models for travel behavior during pessimistic scenarios .Also , to see how people will react after the problem dissolved . Will be gradual return ?
I hope everybody make it through safely with no or minimum casualties. But the lessons we can take is so precious in every aspect of science , travel forecasts included

Atabak Mardan

Transportation System Modeler

C&M Associates.

amardan@candm-associates.com

linkedin.com/amardan

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mmiller@metroan...

Frank,

If I might disagree on one point, regarindg ‘Pre-COVID normal’ There is a cost associated with switching behaviors. But current circumstances are forcing them to try new things. Some will find they like the new ways of doing things. It seems foolhardy to expect that everyone will return to the status quo there-after. Minimally, I think we can expect an acceleration in the trend toward telecommuting.

-Matt.

From: sgfranks=alumni.upenn.edu@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of franktmip
Sent: Monday, March 16, 2020 3:12 PM
To: TMIP
Subject: Re: [TMIP] Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?

Jim: Part of your question seems to be can unknown unknowns be knowable. The answer, as in so much of what travel forecasters do, is “No.” That, however, does not mean we don’t do we forecasts; we just do the best we can with what is available and try not to design inflexible systems or programs that are unable to respond to changes that occur over time. My guess is that after a severe period of disruption things will eventually return to a pre-COVID normal as people try to get back to what they knew and experienced pre-COVID.
As for whether new surveys, etc. are required, the answer is of course. They would be needed to take account of other changes eve if COVID had not occurred.

BTW – of course you cannot do surveys at this time. A quick look at Google maps traffic this morning showed almost all green – unheard of on Monday morning in the DC area. I wonder if it even makes sense to conduct the Census but that may be unavoidable. I would be hesitant to use and 2020 ACS data.

Frank Spielberg
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raqutarit

A few thoughts,short-term, medium-term and long-term:
Note, that I liveand work in Manchester, UK.  All my commentsare made on a solely personal basis, and do not represent the views of myemployer whatsoever.

Short-Term

1            I suppose my firstquestion is how long is short-term?  Currently,the short-term plan for journeys changes 2-3 times a week.  We don’t know how much further up the exponentialcurves we will climb.  Based on publishedstatistics (www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/),The only countries where their published number of daily new cases has peakedand/or started to decrease (for a sustained period of time) are China and SouthKorea.

2            So, we can only reallyguess how long this will last.

3            My guess is thatsoon (within 1-4 weeks) we will move into a steady state position of heavilyreduced travel and substantial restrictions.

Medium-Term

4            After that, I guesswe may start coming out of the most severe impacts on health at a nationallevel.  And restrictions may reduce, withtravel picking up.

Long-Term

5            As we get back tonormal, and cases are greatly reduced (if that is what the long-term outcomeis), will travel patterns change permanently? I have 2 thoughts on this:

6            Will home-workingrates be noticeably different from existing rates?  Changes in rates of home-working have beenforecast for decades, but in my opinion, we have to remember that us humans aresocial animals, and we like to be around colleagues.  Also, communication is much more effective face-to-face.

7            Another importantlesson, is that we may be faced with more such pandemics in the future.  To me, it is clear that infections rateswhere public transport is dominant (and over-crowded) are much higher than inother locations within the same country. This is definitely the case in London, and has also been reported to bethe case in New York.  I am shocked whenspeaking to people in London, this week, how many people are off with badcoughs and how many others are having to self-isolate because they have been incontact with people diagnosed with Coronavirus. Here in Manchester, these are few and far between.  How does the risks of infection comparebetween a packed rush-hour subway (or Tube) and single-driver car commuting?
Stay safe and followyour countries instructions and guidelines.
Regards

Richard Steinberger

From: jabunch=umich.edu@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of suqamywij
Sent: 16 March 2020 11:09
To: TMIP
Subject: [TMIP] Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?

 

We have several projects starting at work that were to include field data collection of traffic volumes and patterns.  Our discussions led to the POV that the COVID-19 is definitely a disrupter of current traffic and no data collection in the next 3 to 4 months will be valid for mode development/calibration/validation.  So that got me to thinking on whether the Pandemic will be a long term disrupter of past travel behavior driving more permanent changes in teleworking,  willingness to take public transit, willingness to take shared use TNCs, etc.   I think it will be, but the question is how significant will the changes be?  Will we need to initiate new data collection and model validation efforts to modify our existing models to account for new preferences and tradeoffs between modes and their trip characteristics?  How do we determine when this is required?
Any thoughts on this will be appreciated.
In general, how should we account for future and yet unforseen shocks to the system and how people respond.  Can we?

Jim Bunch jabunch@umich.edu

--
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Claire Bozic

Given that the situation will likely push many nations into recession, the challenge will be to tease apart the medium and long term impacts caused by new travel behaviors vs what is caused by the slow economy.

Claire Bozic
Senior Analyst
Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP)

From: richardlouis=talk21.com@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of raqutarit
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2020 7:12 AM
To: TMIP
Subject: Re: [TMIP] Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?

A few thoughts,short-term, medium-term and long-term:
Note, that I liveand work in Manchester, UK. All my commentsare made on a solely personal basis, and do not represent the views of myemployer whatsoever.

Short-Term

1 I suppose my firstquestion is how long is short-term? Currently,the short-term plan for journeys changes 2-3 times a week. We don’t know how much further up the exponentialcurves we will climb. Based on publishedstatistics (www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/),The only countries where their published number of daily new cases has peakedand/or started to decrease (for a sustained period of time) are China and SouthKorea.

2 So, we can only reallyguess how long this will last.

3 My guess is thatsoon (within 1-4 weeks) we will move into a steady state position of heavilyreduced travel and substantial restrictions.

Medium-Term

4 After that, I guesswe may start coming out of the most severe impacts on health at a nationallevel. And restrictions may reduce, withtravel picking up.

Long-Term

5 As we get back tonormal, and cases are greatly reduced (if that is what the long-term outcomeis), will travel patterns change permanently? I have 2 thoughts on this:

6 Will home-workingrates be noticeably different from existing rates? Changes in rates of home-working have beenforecast for decades, but in my opinion, we have to remember that us humans aresocial animals, and we like to be around colleagues. Also, communication is much more effective face-to-face.

7 Another importantlesson, is that we may be faced with more such pandemics in the future. To me, it is clear that infections rateswhere public transport is dominant (and over-crowded) are much higher than inother locations within the same country. This is definitely the case in London, and has also been reported to bethe case in New York. I am shocked whenspeaking to people in London, this week, how many people are off with badcoughs and how many others are having to self-isolate because they have been incontact with people diagnosed with Coronavirus. Here in Manchester, these are few and far between. How does the risks of infection comparebetween a packed rush-hour subway (or Tube) and single-driver car commuting?
Stay safe and followyour countries instructions and guidelines.
Regards

Richard Steinberger

From: jabunch=umich.edu@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of suqamywij
Sent: 16 March 2020 11:09
To: TMIP
Subject: [TMIP] Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?

We have several projects starting at work that were to include field data collection of traffic volumes and patterns. Our discussions led to the POV that the COVID-19 is definitely a disrupter of current traffic and no data collection in the next 3 to 4 months will be valid for mode development/calibration/validation. So that got me to thinking on whether the Pandemic will be a long term disrupter of past travel behavior driving more permanent changes in teleworking, willingness to take public transit, willingness to take shared use TNCs, etc. I think it will be, but the question is how significant will the changes be? Will we need to initiate new data collection and model validation efforts to modify our existing models to account for new preferences and tradeoffs between modes and their trip characteristics? How do we determine when this is required?
Any thoughts on this will be appreciated.
In general, how should we account for future and yet unforseen shocks to the system and how people respond. Can we?

Jim Bunch jabunch@umich.edu

--
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Highways England Company Limited | General enquiries: 0300 123 5000 |National Traffic Operations Centre, 3 Ridgeway, Quinton Business Park, Birmingham B32 1AF | https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/highways-england | info@highwaysengland.co.uk

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jabunch

Exactly. My company is accelerating technology implementation for work at
home. I believe many others are doing this as well. So one thing we will
see is a significant increase in decentralized and work at home behavior,
telecommuting, etc. There may be a mid-term unwillingness to share rides
with others but I'm not sure about that. What I am pretty convinced about
is that our models will need tweaking. :-)

JAB

On Tue, Mar 17, 2020 at 9:21 AM Claire Bozic
wrote:

> Given that the situation will likely push many nations into recession, the
> challenge will be to tease apart the medium and long term impacts caused by
> new travel behaviors vs what is caused by the slow economy.
>
> Claire Bozic
> Senior Analyst
> Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP)
>
> From: richardlouis=talk21.com@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of raqutarit
> Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2020 7:12 AM
> To: TMIP
> Subject: Re: [TMIP] Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?
>
> A few thoughts,short-term, medium-term and long-term:
> Note, that I liveand work in Manchester, UK. All my commentsare made on a
> solely personal basis, and do not represent the views of myemployer
> whatsoever.
>
> Short-Term
>
> 1 I suppose my firstquestion is how long is short-term? Currently,the
> short-term plan for journeys changes 2-3 times a week. We don’t know how
> much further up the exponentialcurves we will climb. Based on
> publishedstatistics (www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/),The only
> countries where their published number of daily new cases has peakedand/or
> started to decrease (for a sustained period of time) are China and
> SouthKorea.
>
> 2 So, we can only reallyguess how long this will last.
>
> 3 My guess is thatsoon (within 1-4 weeks) we will move into a steady state
> position of heavilyreduced travel and substantial restrictions.
>
> Medium-Term
>
> 4 After that, I guesswe may start coming out of the most severe impacts on
> health at a nationallevel. And restrictions may reduce, withtravel picking
> up.
>
> Long-Term
>
> 5 As we get back tonormal, and cases are greatly reduced (if that is what
> the long-term outcomeis), will travel patterns change permanently? I have 2
> thoughts on this:
>
> 6 Will home-workingrates be noticeably different from existing rates?
> Changes in rates of home-working have beenforecast for decades, but in my
> opinion, we have to remember that us humans aresocial animals, and we like
> to be around colleagues. Also, communication is much more effective
> face-to-face.
>
> 7 Another importantlesson, is that we may be faced with more such
> pandemics in the future. To me, it is clear that infections rateswhere
> public transport is dominant (and over-crowded) are much higher than
> inother locations within the same country. This is definitely the case in
> London, and has also been reported to bethe case in New York. I am shocked
> whenspeaking to people in London, this week, how many people are off with
> badcoughs and how many others are having to self-isolate because they have
> been incontact with people diagnosed with Coronavirus. Here in Manchester,
> these are few and far between. How does the risks of infection
> comparebetween a packed rush-hour subway (or Tube) and single-driver car
> commuting?
> Stay safe and followyour countries instructions and guidelines.
> Regards
>
> Richard Steinberger
>
> From: jabunch=umich.edu@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of suqamywij
> Sent: 16 March 2020 11:09
> To: TMIP
> Subject: [TMIP] Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?
>
> We have several projects starting at work that were to include field data
> collection of traffic volumes and patterns. Our discussions led to the POV
> that the COVID-19 is definitely a disrupter of current traffic and no data
> collection in the next 3 to 4 months will be valid for mode
> development/calibration/validation. So that got me to thinking on whether
> the Pandemic will be a long term disrupter of past travel behavior driving
> more permanent changes in teleworking, willingness to take public transit,
> willingness to take shared use TNCs, etc. I think it will be, but the
> question is how significant will the changes be? Will we need to initiate
> new data collection and model validation efforts to modify our existing
> models to account for new preferences and tradeoffs between modes and their
> trip characteristics? How do we determine when this is required?
> Any thoughts on this will be appreciated.
> In general, how should we account for future and yet unforseen shocks to
> the system and how people respond. Can we?
>
> Jim Bunch jabunch@umich.edu
>
> --
> Full post:
> https://tmip.org/content/covid-19-temporary-or-permanent-disrupter
> Manage my subscriptions: https://tmip.org/mailinglist
> Stop emails for this post: https://tmip.org/mailinglist/unsubscribe/13384
>
> This email may contain information which is confidential and is intended
> only for use of the recipient/s named above. If you are not an intended
> recipient, you are hereby notified that any copying, distribution,
> disclosure, reliance upon or other use of the contents of this email is
> strictly prohibited. If you have received this email in error, please
> notify the sender and destroy it.
>
> Highways England Company Limited | General enquiries: 0300 123 5000
> |National Traffic Operations Centre, 3 Ridgeway, Quinton Business Park,
> Birmingham B32 1AF |
> https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/highways-england |
> info@highwaysengland.co.uk
>
> Registered in England and Wales no 9346363 | Registered Office: Bridge
> House, 1 Walnut Tree Close, Guildford, Surrey GU1 4LZ
>
> Consider the environment. Please don't print this e-mail unless you really
> need to.
> --
> Full post:
> https://tmip.org/content/covid-19-temporary-or-permanent-disrupter
> Manage my subscriptions: https://tmip.org/mailinglist
> Stop emails for this post: https://tmip.org/mailinglist/unsubscribe/13384
> CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the organization. Do not
> click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know
> the content is safe.
> --
> Full post:
> https://tmip.org/content/covid-19-temporary-or-permanent-disrupter
> Manage my subscriptions: https://tmip.org/mailinglist
> Stop emails for this post: https://tmip.org/mailinglist/unsubscribe/13384
>

--
James (Jim) Allday Bunch, JABunch Transportation Consulting
411 Penwood Road, Silver Spring Maryland, 20901
240-271-3534 jabunch.work@gmail.com

elizabethsall

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-econo...

This article uses cell phone data to analyze the change in travel by region
by day as a response to covid-19

Not perfect, but interesting

On Wed, Mar 18, 2020, 6:03 AM jabunch wrote:

> Exactly. My company is accelerating technology implementation for work at
> home. I believe many others are doing this as well. So one thing we will
> see is a significant increase in decentralized and work at home behavior,
> telecommuting, etc. There may be a mid-term unwillingness to share rides
> with others but I'm not sure about that. What I am pretty convinced about
> is that our models will need tweaking. :-)
>
> JAB
>
> On Tue, Mar 17, 2020 at 9:21 AM Claire Bozic
> wrote:
>
> > Given that the situation will likely push many nations into recession,
> the
> > challenge will be to tease apart the medium and long term impacts caused
> by
> > new travel behaviors vs what is caused by the slow economy.
> >
> > Claire Bozic
> > Senior Analyst
> > Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP)
> >
> > From: richardlouis=talk21.com@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of raqutarit
> > Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2020 7:12 AM
> > To: TMIP
> > Subject: Re: [TMIP] Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?
> >
> > A few thoughts,short-term, medium-term and long-term:
> > Note, that I liveand work in Manchester, UK. All my commentsare made on a
> > solely personal basis, and do not represent the views of myemployer
> > whatsoever.
> >
> > Short-Term
> >
> > 1 I suppose my firstquestion is how long is short-term? Currently,the
> > short-term plan for journeys changes 2-3 times a week. We don’t know how
> > much further up the exponentialcurves we will climb. Based on
> > publishedstatistics (www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/),The only
> > countries where their published number of daily new cases has
> peakedand/or
> > started to decrease (for a sustained period of time) are China and
> > SouthKorea.
> >
> > 2 So, we can only reallyguess how long this will last.
> >
> > 3 My guess is thatsoon (within 1-4 weeks) we will move into a steady
> state
> > position of heavilyreduced travel and substantial restrictions.
> >
> > Medium-Term
> >
> > 4 After that, I guesswe may start coming out of the most severe impacts
> on
> > health at a nationallevel. And restrictions may reduce, withtravel
> picking
> > up.
> >
> > Long-Term
> >
> > 5 As we get back tonormal, and cases are greatly reduced (if that is what
> > the long-term outcomeis), will travel patterns change permanently? I
> have 2
> > thoughts on this:
> >
> > 6 Will home-workingrates be noticeably different from existing rates?
> > Changes in rates of home-working have beenforecast for decades, but in my
> > opinion, we have to remember that us humans aresocial animals, and we
> like
> > to be around colleagues. Also, communication is much more effective
> > face-to-face.
> >
> > 7 Another importantlesson, is that we may be faced with more such
> > pandemics in the future. To me, it is clear that infections rateswhere
> > public transport is dominant (and over-crowded) are much higher than
> > inother locations within the same country. This is definitely the case in
> > London, and has also been reported to bethe case in New York. I am
> shocked
> > whenspeaking to people in London, this week, how many people are off with
> > badcoughs and how many others are having to self-isolate because they
> have
> > been incontact with people diagnosed with Coronavirus. Here in
> Manchester,
> > these are few and far between. How does the risks of infection
> > comparebetween a packed rush-hour subway (or Tube) and single-driver car
> > commuting?
> > Stay safe and followyour countries instructions and guidelines.
> > Regards
> >
> > Richard Steinberger
> >
> > From: jabunch=umich.edu@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of suqamywij
> > Sent: 16 March 2020 11:09
> > To: TMIP
> > Subject: [TMIP] Covid-19: Temporary or Permanent Disrupter?
> >
> > We have several projects starting at work that were to include field data
> > collection of traffic volumes and patterns. Our discussions led to the
> POV
> > that the COVID-19 is definitely a disrupter of current traffic and no
> data
> > collection in the next 3 to 4 months will be valid for mode
> > development/calibration/validation. So that got me to thinking on whether
> > the Pandemic will be a long term disrupter of past travel behavior
> driving
> > more permanent changes in teleworking, willingness to take public
> transit,
> > willingness to take shared use TNCs, etc. I think it will be, but the
> > question is how significant will the changes be? Will we need to initiate
> > new data collection and model validation efforts to modify our existing
> > models to account for new preferences and tradeoffs between modes and
> their
> > trip characteristics? How do we determine when this is required?
> > Any thoughts on this will be appreciated.
> > In general, how should we account for future and yet unforseen shocks to
> > the system and how people respond. Can we?
> >
> > Jim Bunch jabunch@umich.edu
> >
> > --
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>
> --
> James (Jim) Allday Bunch, JABunch Transportation Consulting
> 411 Penwood Road, Silver Spring Maryland, 20901
> 240-271-3534 jabunch.work@gmail.com
> --
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