How to Forecast Uncertainty in Travel Forecasts


Date: April 25, 2018

Description: As with most other types of forecasts, estimates of travel demand inherently include some level of uncertainty. Before-and-after studies have shown that the level of uncertainty ranges from modest to extreme, and many projects might not have been built or might have been designed differently had this uncertainty been understood. This webinar will describe a variety of approaches that have been used to estimate the levels of uncertainty in travel demand forecasts and determine the major factors contributing to those uncertainties. Applications to highway, airport and transit demand forecasts will be covered, along with applications involving travel demand forecasts generated by both traditional and activity-based travel demand models.

Presenter:  Tom Adler is President and co-founder of RSG, a US-based consulting firm, specializing in travel demand modeling and commercial market applications of discrete choice modeling. His travel demand modeling work has spanned more than 40 years and has involved applications in over 30 countries. He has conducted quantitative analyses of travel forecast uncertainties for numerous major infrastructure projects. His current work is focused on estimating demand for new mobility services Tom has a PhD in Transportation Systems from MIT and for 10 years was a professor and director of the graduate program in transportation modeling at Dartmouth College.