How/When to incorporate CAV effects into traffic demand models and forecast

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meiZI
How/When to incorporate CAV effects into traffic demand models and forecast

We (the North Carolina Model User Group) would like to hear your thoughts on HOW and WHEN to incorporate CAV effects into your regional traffic demand model, for scenario tests, MTP development, forecast and else, i.e., your organization's decision making process and reasoning based on your info and data availability and else.

The upcoming HCM 6.1 is expected to include the new capacities on varying levels of CAV market penetration which would help make incorporating CAV effect in the models a bit easier.

Thanks and look forward to hear from you!

 

 

Claire Bozic

I don't think we should include automated vehicles at all at this time. There are far too many unknowns and much of the impact will be formed by policies that are not yet in place. I do think we can include advanced driver assist technologies (which will be the foundation of automated vehicle technology) such as crash avoidance, lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, and other features that improve driver performance which are available now and don't get nearly the press as automated vehicles. Connected vehicle features which improve on driver assist technologies can also be considered - prediction of traffic signal cycle, detection of braking or other hazardous conditions out of direct detection range will also be an big improvement. Platooning of all types of vehicles will also be possible.

Claire Bozic | Senior Analyst | Research and Analysis Division
Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP)
433 W. Van Buren St. Suite 450 | Chicago, IL 60607
T 312.386.8744 | cbozic@cmap.illinois.gov | cmap.illinois.gov

From: mei_z_i=yahoo.com@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of meiZI
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 2:18 PM
To: TMIP
Subject: [TMIP] How/When to incorporate CAV effects into traffic demand models and forecast

We (the North Carolina Model User Group) would like to hear your thoughts on HOW and WHEN to incorporate CAV effects into your regional traffic demand model, for scenario tests, MTP development, forecast and else, i.e., your organization's decision making process and reasoning based on your info and data availability and else.

The upcoming HCM 6.1 is expected to include the new capacities on varying levels of CAV market penetration which would help make incorporating CAV effect in the models a bit easier.

Thanks and look forward to hear from you!

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djsz28

Given the potential of CAVs to significantly impact travel demand and level of service,  it would be prudent to consider CAVs in the modeling process. Of particular concern would be CAVs impacts as a competitor to conventional transit service and given the impacts observed from Uber and Lyft, a larger amount of CAVs could further impact transit ridership as well as auto travel in future years.  Within the highway assignment process, it is reasonable to assume that at some point increases in effective capacity for limited access roadways would occur, once the penetration of CAVs reach critical mass.  Scenario planning could be useful in predicting some first-order impacts.  

erikalm

If you haven't already found NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 896 - Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, then take a look through it.  <http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/178393.aspx>

 

gregmacfarlane

The question of how to represent CAV’s in the travel modeling process is a very complicated one, and will surely involve much more than simply asserting improvements to capacity or playing with trip generation functions. The TF Resource website has a long (and I think useful!) section on what agencies need to think about before they go about blindly adjusting their models to “represent” CAVs in an incoherent way.

https://tfresource.org/topics/Autonomous_vehicles.html

Greg Macfarlane
BYU Civil Engineering
On Feb 17, 2021, 2:47 PM -0700, djsz28 , wrote:
> Given the potential of CAVs to significantly impact travel demand and level of service, it would be prudent to consider CAVs in the modeling process. Of particular concern would be CAVs impacts as a competitor to conventional transit service and given the impacts observed from Uber and Lyft, a larger amount of CAVs could further impact transit ridership as well as auto travel in future years. Within the highway assignment process, it is reasonable to assume that at some point increases in effective capacity for limited access roadways would occur, once the penetration of CAVs reach critical mass. Scenario planning could be useful in predicting some first-order impacts.
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Vince Bernardin

You may also want to review my paper Scenario Modeling of Autonomous Vehicles with Trip-Based Models .

Best,
Vince

Vince Bernardin, PhD
Vice President | Caliper Corporation
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Mobile: 812-459-3500 o Main: 617-527-4700
vince@caliper.com o www.caliper.com

From: erik.alm=dot.ca.gov@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of erikalm
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 5:05 PM
To: TMIP
Subject: Re: [TMIP] How/When to incorporate CAV effects into traffic demand models and forecast

If you haven't already found NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 896 - Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, then take a look through it.

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Vince Bernardin

Sorry, for some reason, the url was stripped, but you should be able to find it if you google. - Vince

From: vince=caliper.com@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of Vince Bernardin
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 5:33 PM
To: TMIP
Subject: Re: [TMIP] How/When to incorporate CAV effects into traffic demand models and forecast

You may also want to review my paper Scenario Modeling of Autonomous Vehicles with Trip-Based Models .
Best,
Vince
Vince Bernardin, PhD
Vice President | Caliper Corporation
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mobile: 812-459-3500 o Main: 617-527-4700
vince@caliper.com o www.caliper.com
From: erik.alm=dot.ca.gov@mg.tmip.org On Behalf Of erikalm
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 5:05 PM
To: TMIP
Subject: Re: [TMIP] How/When to incorporate CAV effects into traffic demand models and forecast
If you haven't already found NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 896 - Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, then take a look through it.
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jeremy.raw

Plus there's a report from a peer exchange convened as a follow-up to NCHRP Report 896:

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/tmip/publications/other_reports/automa...

Jeremy

meiZI

Thanks all for sharing your thoughts and info, which I will pass onto North Carolina Model User Group members.