Incorporating Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) Approaches in Transportation Planning Activities: A Pilot Study
Previous Webinar on SACOG https://tmip.org/content/demonstration-robust-decision-making-sacog
Oct. 8 2020 Webinar Session Description
TMIP has held three webinars as part of the TMIP Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) series (the recordings are available at https://tmip.org/webinars):
• Introducing the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Tool (TMIP-EMAT) (Dec 18, 2018)
• Using TMIP-EMAT for Exploratory Analysis (Nov. 13, 2019)
• Testing and Results of TMIP-EMAT at ODOT (May 28, 2020)
At our November 13 webinar, I did a recap of TMIP Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) research history and the future direction. One of the additional projects I noted is the joint research effort with our Planning Oversight & Stewardship Team (Harlan Miller), focusing on integrating EMA into transportation planning process using TMIP-EMAT. Last October, RAND Corporation was awarded the project entitled, “Incorporating Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) Approaches in Transportation Planning Activities: A Pilot Study.” The research initiative aims to demonstrate the value of DMDU approaches as an additional decision support method. In the fourth webinar of the TMIP EMA series, we will provide an update on this latest project.
This webinar will include members of both the RAND project team and the two MPOs that will be working with them. The larger purpose of the project will be to provide examples of how TMIP-EMAT can facilitate the work of planning agencies and the modeling teams that support them. Experience on learning and best practice will be gained through working on two specific planning issues while incorporating better means for addressing the deep uncertainty that confronts planning agencies today.
The two partnering MPOs will discuss their motivation in participating in the project. First, Garett Ballard-Rosa of the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) will share how his agency’s experience in a DMDU pilot has reinforced SACOG’s desire to better address uncertainty in its long-range planning practice. Next, Hsi-Hwa Hu of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) will discuss why SCAG as an agency is interested in learning about how to incorporate DMDU methods as well as his expectations for developing and using TMIP-EMAT within the suite of models used to support planners’ decision making.
Robert Lempert and Steven Popper from RAND, the co-PIs of the project, will then discuss the broad outlines of the project itself. They will conclude with a brief presentation of the vision for what capability gaps DMDU-based tools could address within planning agencies confronting the need to meet federal guidelines, local demands, community ambitions and their own requirements for effective functioning within a landscape that is changing rapidly across many dimensions in ways difficult to predict.
Presenters
Garett Ballard-Rosa is a senior analyst at the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG), the metropolitan planning organization for the six-county Sacramento region in northern California. His work focuses on developing quantitative information to support transportation and land use decision-making at various scales, ranging from individual transportation projects to region-wide investments and plans.
Hsi-Hwa Hu is manager of Modeling and Forecasting department at the Southern California Association of Governments. SCAG is the nation's largest MPO, representing six counties, 191 cities and more than 19 million residents. Hsi-Hwa received his PhD in Planning from the University of Southern California.
Robert Lempert is a principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition. His research focuses on risk management and decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty. Dr. Lempert is the inaugural president of the international Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (http://www.deepuncertainty.org) and professor of policy analysis in the Pardee RAND Graduate School.
Steven Popper is a senior economist at the RAND Corporation and professor of science and technology policy in the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Dr. Popper served as the associate director of the Science & Technology Policy Institute, a federally funded R&D center supporting the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, chair of the AAAS section on industrial S&T, and is the inaugural chair for education and training of the international Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (http://www.deepuncertainty.org).
