Dear all
Today we participated in Janata Curfew which means people stay home on their own. Our prime minister has called for it. It was from 7am to 9 pm.
Many organisations such as bus and train operators and shops etc. closed their operations. I felt it was successful.
I mean we saw very little traffic on roads. It shows that when in an emergency and when awareness is available the government can limit travel for a small period.
This may not mean much for a planner, we may find it useful information somewhere.
Sasanka Bhushan
It is encouraging to hear and see evidence that shelter-in-place and similar orders are effective, because compliance with these measures is obviously critical to surviving the current pandemic crisis as a global community.
In what seems like another lifetime ago I worked on a few evacuation simulation modeling studies, and an issue we considered to some degree was how to model non-compliance with official directives... for example, we found that carefully phasing the timing of evacuation orders by location and spreading out evacuation trips across a variety of facilities rather than a narrow set of designated hurricane evacuation routes could make a huge difference to the network's ability to perform under very atypical emergency conditions; on the one hand a certain amount of random scatter in behavior could mitigate the excessively narrow official evacuation plans, but on the other a population that completely ignores well-structured evacuation plans could undercut government efforts to keep everyone safe.
In an earthquake evacuation simulation model we built, the policy goal was the exact opposite--get everyone to stay put and "shelter in place"--so the evacuation behavior we were trying to simulate was all basically non-compliant, meaning people ignoring official orders (or not receiving them due to damaged communications infrastructure) and going out to gather up relatives and attempt to escape with them to safety... as with the hurricane evacuation case, a major struggle we faced was that there was little to no useful data on how people would actually behave in such situations, so if someone is collecting such data now, it might be useful to share it with researchers so that those building emergency response systems and epidemiological models can better understand the short-term travel behavior we might expect to see.
Colby Brown, Principal
Manhan Group, LLC
colby@manhangroup.com
Voice: +1 (413) 282-8629
________________________________
From: bushan515=yahoo.com@mg.tmip.org on behalf of sasbhushan
Sent: Monday, March 23, 2020 8:05 AM
To: TMIP
Subject: [TMIP] Janata curfew in India
Dear all
Today we participated in Janata Curfew which means people stay home on their own. Our prime minister has called for it. It was from 7am to 9 pm.
Many organisations such as bus and train operators and shops etc. closed their operations. I felt it was successful.
I mean we saw very little traffic on roads. It shows that when in an emergency and when awareness is available the government can limit travel for a small period.
This may not mean much for a planner, we may find it useful information somewhere.
Sasanka Bhushan
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