Managing Forecasting Uncertainty – Practical Examples of Using Exploratory Modeling from Metro Vancouver

You can view the recording here

Passcode: $3&6gps7

You can find the program code and the technical documentation for TMIP-EMAT at You can find more resource links under "Chat Messages" in the recording. 


00:00:01  Introduction

00:04:36 Exploratory Modeling to Inform Planning for COVID-19 Recovery presentation

00:38:29 Questions and Answers for Exploratory Modeling to Inform Planning for COVID-19 Recovery

01:07:09  TMIP-EMAT Practitioner's Guide presentation

01:31:00  Exploratory Modeling to Inform Planning for Non COVID-19 projects presentation

Session Description

Over the past few years, TransLink's Forecasting team has been looking for modeling approaches that will facilitate improved treatment of the inherent uncertainties in the long-term planning process. The onset of COVID-19, in early 2020, made the capacity to analyze the uncertainty from long- and short-term impacts of the pandemic on travel behavior both critical and urgent. Utilizing TMIP-EMAT, TransLink's Forecasting group was able to answer questions such as: (a) the impact of region wide work-from-home on commute trips (b) impact of transit aversion and preferring private vehicles on travel times and speeds (c) impact of reduced transit capacity / frequency on transit fare revenue.

This session presents the inner working of modeling these impacts and uncertainties using TMIP-EMAT. From stakeholder input about outcomes of interest to effectively presenting findings of thousands of simulated model runs, the presentation describes details of each step involved and how our agency uses available tools to make informed decisions. The presentation will also discuss current and future use cases for this type of uncertainty modeling beyond COVID-19. We will also provide a real-world example (with scripts and workflow document) of using TMIP-EMAT to evaluate an extension of a rapid transit project.

In short, the webinar will describe:

  • an overview of using TMIP-EMAT to assess impacts of COVID-19 on transit ridership

  • Step-by-step guide of setting up and running TMIP-EMAT

  • Applications of TMIP-EMAT at TransLink to evaluate various transit projects

About TransLink 

Established in 1999, TransLink is responsible for planning, financing and operating the transportation system throughout Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The agency is responsible for maintaining and operating major roads, bridges and the public transit system which includes local and express buses, an elevated light rail system (SkyTrain), a commuter rain (West Coast Express) and ferry (SeaBus).


Ilan Elgar is the manager of TransLink's Forecasting Team. Over his 20+ years career in transportation planning, Ilan has led multiple transportation model development and application efforts as well as several major household surveys and other data collection projects. Ilan holds a PhD in transportation from the University of Toronto.

Sumit Bindra joined TransLink's forecasting group as a Senior Modeler in 2019. Prior to that, he was working as a transportation modeling consultant in the US for over a decade. At TransLink, he has been working with the regional trip-based travel demand model and helping in developing the new activity based model. In 2020, he primarily worked on integrating the TMIP-EMAT framework with TransLink's travel model and using it for several uncertainty projects at the agency.