Shining a Light Inside the Black Box

Date: 
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Category: 
Travel Model Development

Truly effective travel forecasting models don't just happen; they are the final outcome of a long process of collecting data, analyzing travel patterns, and testing alternative model structures. The ultimate goal is to find the modeling procedures that both explain today's travel patterns and describe how travel will evolve under a variety of growth, policy, and infrastructure development scenarios. Too often, however, data on travel behavior is lacking and insufficient attention is given to fully understanding the details of how forecasting models represent that behavior. Since travel forecasting models are often seen as "Black Boxes," the solution is to shine a light inside these boxes to expose the inner workings and learn what works and what still needs to be improved. This webinar series ( Webinar 1 , Webinar 2 , Webinar 3 and Webinar 4 ) describe the experience, both good and bad, in looking into the Black Box.