Sketch Traffic Forecasting Techniques from NCHRP 765 (July 24, 2014 )


Date: July 24, 2014 

There are three presentations, each around 30 minutes with time for questions.

Presentation 1: Sketch Traffic Forecasting Techniques from NCHRP 765

NCHRP 765, Analytical Travel Forecasting Approaches for Project-Level Planning and Design, has two chapters that can be considered sketch level planning techniques. Chapter 7 Refining the Spatial Detail of Traffic Models deals with taking travel demand models and refining them for traffic forecasting purposes. Such techniques as subarea focusing, windowing, microsimulation and integration of statewide/regional and local models are examined. Chapter 10 Tools Other Than Travel Models examines techniques used for traffic forecasting other than travel demand models such as time series of traffic volumes, manual gravity model, elasticity methods and Highway Capacity Manual uses for traffic forecasting.

Presented By:

Dr. Alan Horowitz is a transportation engineer and an urban planner. His research spans the areas of travel forecasting and traffic impacts. His research includes values of travel time, urban trip tours, land-use impact assessment, single-route ridership forecasting, trip assignment, subarea focusing, ride quality of highways, intermodal passenger transfer facilities, transportation benefits, freight planning, applications of GIS to transportation networks, hazardous materials routing, intelligent transportation systems, and travel forecasting.

Dr. Tom Creasey is a Principal with Stantec Consulting Services in Lexington, and has 32 years’ experience in transportation planning and engineering. Tom’s expertise includes traffic forecasting, traffic modeling, transportation planning, traffic operations and highway safety. He currently serves as Secretary for the TRB Highway Capacity and Quality of Service Committee, which oversees the Highway Capacity Manual. 

Rob Bostrom is a principal with CDM Smith and is their national practice leader for travel demand modeling with responsibilities for project management, project coordination, team building, marketing, QC/QA and other related areas. He has also worked 20 years for the Kentucky Transportation Engineering in the areas of traffic forecasting, travel demand modeling, traffic monitoring, archived data, mobility monitoring, MPO coordination, freight planning and commercial vehicle monitoring.

Presentation 2: Transportation Planner's Web-based Accessibility Toolkit

This webinar provides an introduction to the transportation planner’s accessibility toolkit, free software developed by Caliper Corporation under the sponsorship of FHWA. The toolkit is web-based software that calculates accessibility measures based upon existing transport infrastructure and from potential infrastructure or service improvements. The accessibility calculator is easy to use and can be adapted to different locations and infrastructure scenarios. The toolkit calculates and compares travel times to and from key places (work locations, schools, hospitals, etc.) for auto, transit, bicycle, and pedestrian modes. It also computes the demographics associated with different levels of travel time accessibility. All of the calculations are performed by a web application that is built upon TransCAD for the Web installed on a server. One copy of the web application and TransCAD for the Web is needed to run the web application and will be provided gratis upon request to U.S. state, MPO, and public transportation agencies. During the webinar we will provide an overview of accessibility measures and a working demonstration of the toolkit. We will cover topics such as application use, geographic data requirements, data preparation, scenario configuration, and server run-time requirements.

Presented By:

Dr. Howard L. Slavin is the President and founder of Caliper Corporation. He has thirty-five years of experience in applying quantitative methods and developing software for transportation planning and analysis. Dr. Slavin initiated and has guided the development of all of Caliper’s products including TransCAD, TransModeler, and MAPTITUDE. Dr. Slavin is an internationally recognized expert in transportation modeling and geographic information systems.

Dr. Andres Rabinowicz is a Vice President at Caliper Corporation and an experienced transportation planner and engineer who has been active in developing improved methods for transportation planning. Dr. Rabinowicz is currently directing the development of the next version of TransCAD. He is also directing several TransCAD-based activity model software development projects as well as implementing a variety of advanced transportation planning procedures.

Dr. Giovanni Flammia is Director of Web Development at Caliper Corporation. Dr. Flammia has been the chief software architect for all of the company web products and web applications. Under his direction, Caliper has successfully deployed dozens of innovative web mapping applications for large companies and government organizations.

Presentation 3: Project Evaluation Toolkit (PET)

This presentation describes and demonstrates the use of the Project Evaluation Toolkit or “PET”, a freely available, open-source transportation project evaluation toolkit that assesses impacts across a variety of project types. PET uses a variety of data files – including existing traffic link counts, behavioral and operational function parameters, and travel growth projections, among others - to estimate potential changes that may result from construction projects and transportation policy changes being considered. PET quickly estimates how network changes affect benefits & costs to travelers, project financing feasibility, air quality, and crash totals. Summary measures (such as net present values and benefit-cost ratios) are developed over multi-year/long-term horizons to quantify the relative merit of project scenarios, versus a base-case (e.g., no-build) scenario.

PET offers valuable predictions of future flow patterns and transportation benefits, enabling transportation planners and decision makers to quickly, quantitatively and objectively compare complicated project alternatives. This ability is particularly crucial as budgets become increasingly constrained, making optimal investment and policy decisions paramount. Additional PET capabilities include sensitivity analysis (for simulating uncertainty across most inputs) and a knapsack-type optimization module for budget allocation under a variety of constraints, across project alternatives.

PET was developed by researchers in the Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin, under a Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) research contract.

Presented By:

Dr. Kara Kockelman, The E.P. Schoch Professor of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin, is a registered professional engineer and holds a PhD, MS, and BS in civil engineering, a Masters of City Planning, and a minor in economics from the University of California at Berkeley. Dr. Kockelman's primary research interests include the statistical modeling of urban systems (including models of travel behavior, trade, and location choice), energy and climate issues (vis-Ã -vis transport and land use decisions), the economic impacts of transport policy, and crash occurrence and consequences. 

Dr. Dan Fagnant is the author of seven technical articles and five technical reports over the past four years focusing on transportation topics from vehicle automation and other emerging vehicle technologies, to transport system design, crash costs and emissions impacts, traveler choices, transport policy, and demand modeling. Dan has served as a staff member on the Texas Technology Task Force, the team responsible for developing a strategic plan for encouraging emerging transportation technologies in Texas. He also was key to the design, application, and public rollout of the Project Evaluation Toolkit (PET) a comprehensive, open-source, and user-friendly (but complex, behind the scenes) tool for extensive transportation project and policy evaluations available. He is now one of the nation’s experts in shared mobility using automated vehicles, and is a leader in holistic benefit-cost assessments for complex transport system modifications and policies, and for crash assessments vis-Ã -vis system design.